Ecuador’s New Era: Noboa, Trade and Mining

Last reviewed: 7 October 2026. Every figure below comes from the sources listed at the end of this article; items we could not confirm were left out.

President Daniel Noboa won re-election in the April 13, 2025 runoff. Since then, Ecuador has signed a reciprocal trade agreement with the United States and a large gold-mining agreement with a Chinese company, while the government still has to build legislative support without a majority of its own. This article summarizes what is confirmed for businesses watching the region.

The 2025 election

In the runoff, Noboa (ADN) received 5,870,618 votes (55.63%) against 4,683,260 (44.37%) for Luisa González of the Citizen Revolution Movement, a margin of 1,187,358 votes, or about 11.3 percentage points (El Mercurio). The first round had been far closer: Noboa led by only 16,746 votes (Primicias).

González did not accept the result. She alleged fraud and said her side would ask for a recount (La Nación). The European Union Election Observation Mission described election day as calm and transparent, and its chief observer said that the imbalances the mission saw in some areas could not justify casting doubt on the result (EU EOM, April 15, 2025).

A legislature without a government majority

The National Assembly has 151 seats, so a majority is 76. ADN holds 66. The Citizen Revolution bloc fell from 67 to 66 seats when assembly member Mónica Salazar left it on April 15, 2025 (Primicias). She later joined the government’s legislative agreement, and in May 2025 Vistazo reported that the government was approaching a majority with support from four Social Christian Party legislators and most of the Pachakutik bloc. Blocs and alliances change, so check the Assembly’s current composition before relying on these numbers.

Trade: the U.S.-Ecuador agreement

The United States and Ecuador signed an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade on March 13, 2026 (AS/COA; Extra). According to Feedstuffs, the U.S. will eliminate the 10% global tariff and give most-favored-nation rates to Ecuadorian goods that cannot be grown, mined or naturally produced in the United States, and Ecuador agreed not to apply its Andean Price Band variable tariffs to U.S. agricultural imports. President Noboa said the agreement benefits 53% of Ecuador’s non-oil exports (Extra). The earlier USTR framework fact sheet (November 2025) said the MFN treatment would apply by the later of August 1, 2026 or entry into force of the agreement.

For U.S. pork, the agreement sets a duty-free tariff-rate quota of 100 metric tons in Year 1. The National Pork Producers Council said U.S. pork exports to Ecuador have been negligible because of non-tariff barriers (NPPC).

Mining: gold and copper

On April 27, 2026, Ecuador signed an agreement with the local subsidiary of China’s CMOC Group, ODIN Mining del Ecuador, to develop the Los Cangrejos gold project in El Oro province, with investment of more than US$1.7 billion. Mining Weekly describes it as the country’s largest primary gold deposit, with a projected mine life of 26 years, and notes that mining development in Ecuador has faced community opposition, litigation and regulatory changes.

In copper, Jiangxi Copper completed its takeover of SolGold on March 4, 2026, which gives China control of the Cascabel project; Chinese interests also operate the Mirador mine, the only large-scale copper mine currently producing in Ecuador (PYMNTS).

Security alert after the election

On April 19, 2025, the Ministry of Government declared a “maximum alert” after a military intelligence report, dated April 17, warned of plots against President Noboa. The government attributed the alleged plot to criminal structures acting in complicity with political sectors defeated at the polls; the coverage we reviewed reported no names or evidence (Expansión).

What to check before acting

• Confirm the agreement’s entry-into-force status and the tariff schedule for your product before pricing shipments to or from Ecuador.
• Treat mining timelines with caution: community opposition and litigation have slowed projects before.
• Remember that legislation depends on alliances in an Assembly where no bloc holds 76 seats.

Sources

• El Mercurio: final runoff count
• Primicias: first-round results
• La Nación: runoff day report
• EU Election Observation Mission: second-round statement
• Primicias: Mónica Salazar leaves the Citizen Revolution bloc
• Vistazo: Salazar joins the government bloc
• AS/COA: U.S.-Ecuador Agreement on Reciprocal Trade
• Extra: signing of the agreement
• Feedstuffs: U.S. and Ecuador finalize trade agreement
• USTR: framework fact sheet, November 2025
• National Pork Producers Council: Capital Update, March 20, 2026
• Mining Weekly: Los Cangrejos agreement
• PYMNTS: Jiangxi Copper completes the SolGold acquisition
• Expansión: “maximum alert” over the alleged plot
• U.S. ITA: Ecuador Market Overview (last published September 2, 2025), for broader background