U.S. Agricultural Exports: Opportunities Amidst Global Shifts

Based on the projected changes presented in the Foreign Agricultural Service’s World Agricultural Production Circular for major crops and the USDA 2024 Agricultural Export Outlook, we expect several U.S. export industries to benefit:

Corn

Global coarse-grain production is projected to increase to 1,547.1 million metric tons (mmt) for the 2025/26 season (World Agricultural Production Report, July 2025).

Despite Brazil experiencing a bumper corn crop for 2024/25, robust domestic demand for animal feed and ethanol production in Brazil is expected to reduce its exportable supplies. This expected market tightening creates conducive conditions for strong U.S. corn exports on the world market.

Mexico’s corn production is estimated to be down 10% from the 5-year average, with yields declining due to poor crop conditions in Sinaloa, a key corn-producing region. As Mexico remains the top U.S. corn export market, this reduced domestic production, combined with Brazil’s domestic focus, should sustain robust U.S. corn exports.

Wheat

World wheat production for 2025/26 is projected to increase to 808.6 mmt.

U.S. exportable supplies are supported by a larger planted area for winter wheat and ample ending stocks.

U.S. wheat exports are likely to remain strong in South America and will compete in Asian markets with Australian wheat. Demand growth in Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia supports long-term U.S. export opportunities despite global supply increases.

Soybeans

Global oilseed production is projected to hit 693.5 mmt, driven by record Brazil soybean output and a recovery in Argentina’s production.

While strong global supply may pressure prices, U.S. soybean exports are forecast to rise due to larger domestic production and growing global demand for oilseeds.

Pork and Pork Products

The global swine industry is rebalancing post-ASF outbreaks in China.

EU pork production is expected to decline, opening doors for U.S. pork exports in price-sensitive markets like China and Japan.

Although Brazil remains a low-cost supplier, rising export prices from Brazil may give U.S. pork exports a competitive price advantage in 2025.

Ethanol (Non-Beverage)

While not directly tied to crop volumes, U.S. ethanol exports benefit from Brazil’s biofuels market and blending mandates, which limit their export surplus.

U.S. ethanol export growth is expected to continue as foreign demand rises, particularly in countries adopting low-carbon fuel standards.

Dairy Products (Cheese and Butterfat)

Dairy exports on a milk-fat basis are forecast to increase in 2025, driven by cheese and butter exports.

New processing capacity in California and the Midwest ensures ample supply. Growth markets in Central and South America present expanding demand for U.S. dairy exports.

Processed Food

U.S. processed food exports are projected to grow with rising incomes and urbanization. Demand for shelf-stable convenience foods is growing in high-income markets and emerging markets like Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia.

Note: U.S. rice and cotton exports face increased competition.